Settled against real Kalshi / Polymarket prices · coarsened public view · …
Ledger head (append-only)
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settled predictions
The verdict — front and centre
Across the settled ledger, the model is well-calibrated but shows no exploitable edge after costs.
We lead with the conclusion, not a number. Green here means calibration and wins — never an implied profit.
Are the probabilities honest?
A calibrated forecaster is right about as often as it claims. Points on the dashed line = honest probabilities. Market hugs it; our model doesn't — and we show you both.
Brier — …
The forward tests — pre-registered · frozen
Nothing graduates to real money until its gate is met with the 95% CI excluding zero. We publish the failures next to the works-in-progress.
Paper only — zero real capital. Bars pre-registered and frozen; changing a bar mid-test voids its verdict.
Tamper-evident settlement
Each settled outcome is a leaf in an append-only Merkle tree. The signed root below lets anyone recompute the full record in their own browser and verify it — dropping, reordering, or rosying up any outcome changes the root and breaks the signature.
Audit it yourself
Every settlement is published here — coarsened, no login, no cherry-picking. The honesty is the product.